As expressed in Sep18, with EM valuations trashed and US stocks still at stellar high levels, something had to give. US stocks finally fell by about 8-9% in Oct18, just enough to shake the Fed’s tightening course and place the threat of a slowing global growth to everybody’s front cortex. This reset being done, this should clear the way to a year-end/early 2019 rally, as the bull market momentum is not dead and there might be a couple of rabbits to pull out of the China-US tariff-war. Having said that, pressures have increased on the funding front for consumers and companies alike, and the lack of inflation still raise the spectre of a very possible stagflation to come. As everybody debates whether this is for mid19 or 2020, gearing portfolio towards a more conservative approach is the right tack.
360 Advisory – Markets