Month: March 2019

Lofty valuations are back and it is not going to be a straight line up from here

As growth expectations are being revised down, the rates curve is inverting and the Fed would likely decrease its target rate

The mood in 2019 is resolutely more cautious than previous years, as everybody agrees we are in the late cycle of a long economic bull run. From late 2018, PMI started sagging, global growth slowed down, and corporate earnings were forecast to grow less strongly. But central banks worldwide didn’t let the downturn fully start […]

Global demand is slowing and tactics abound to get pieces of a shrinking pie

The risk-on of Jan19 and Feb19 is likely to stop due to late-cycle slowdown, unless China bottoms out strongly and quickly